PROSPERO - Proactive Safety Performance for Operations

 

State of the Art

New international regulation for aviation organizations and for states demands an approach to safety that is preventive and proactive rather than reactive, is performance driven, and able to deliver verifiable improvement. However, this cannot be realized without the capability to anticipate and prevent complex system accidents and this is lacking in the following ways. The most used risk assessment methodologies are based on expert judgment unsupported by extensive data. Anticipation of specific risks is not fine-tuned enough for preparation for potential emergencies to be integrated into normal everyday operational planning. There is no integrated risk metric for the Air Transport System that allows risks of different types and sources to be assessed with reference to each other. The lack of a system-wide risk metric makes it impossible for system improvements to be evaluated against a projected risk reduction target. There is no standard for safety performance that a regulator can use to audit, evaluate or require an operator to improve its safety system.

Objectives

PROSPERO seeks to address these issues through a common performance management concept designed around two active management cycles, one concerning the real-time management of risk in operations (operational loop) and the other concerning system change and redesign (system change loop).

In the Operational Loop, risk information is generated from integrated streams of data and reports, linking performance outcomes back to their process antecedents, encompassing complex interactions. Up-to-date risk information, concerning the aircraft, crew, route, weather, is then embedded in the normal channels of information supply for flight planning and management. This enables the anticipation and mitigation of threats to become an explicit part of flight operations planning and management both before and during flights and triggering specific feedback about the management of those risks.

The same risk information also triggers the System Change Loop, but here the focus is on identifying solutions and initiating a progressive process of systemic risk reduction. Solutions are proposed, developed and taken up by those who are capable of implementing them, whether they involve infrastructure, technologies, information systems, business and management processes, or human resources. Both development and implementation of these solutions are driven by projected system risk reduction. Their implementation is accompanied by comparing these projections with actual outcomes, taking into account the risks involved in the design and change processes.

While risk is most salient for the individual owner of that risk (e.g. a corporation), gaining leverage over risk at a system level requires an integrated analysis to support a coordinated response of all air transport stakeholders. Creating this collaboration in a competitive environment depends on demonstrating common system benefits. A major goal for PROSPERO is to demonstrate the efficacy of both Operational and System Change loops at an air transport system level, involving Air Traffic Management, airport operations, flight operations, ground operations and maintenance.

At the level at which the system is regulated (for example, the Single European Sky) performance is a function of the integrated activity of the ATS, not just one component. This is also the level where a larger, more powerful, dataset can be collected and integrated. Enabling the regulator to have effective oversight of both the Operational Loop and the System Change Loop at local and regional ATS levels and within individual organizations, can give assurance that the risks identified are actually being managed and provides the basis for smarter and more cost-effective regulation.

Description of work

PROSPERO is developing its work in four stages. A specification of the needs and wants of the industry at three levels (single organizations, aviation system, and regulatory level) leads to the design of the PROSPERO model and plans for its trial implementation. The development and integration of the components of both the Operational and System Change loops addresses the three levels (organization, local system, regulated system) that comprise the whole aviation system. The tools, methodologies and processes that comprise the PROSPERO system will be applied in two test beds. In parallel to these stages the system will be evaluated against industry needs and the emerging results will be disseminated and prepared for exploitation.

Expected results

PROSPERO will develop, implement and evaluate a prototype management system for identifying and actively managing systemic risks, including complex interactions, in the Air Transport System. The analysis of diverse operational data will support an integrated model of risk incorporating the key risk antecedents. This risk information will enhance the normal supply of information into planning, dispatch and operational management throughout the ATS, so that potential risks are designed out in planning or actively managed in operations and potential emergencies are anticipated. This systemic risk information will also set improvement parameters for a System Change Loop of solution development and implementation. This risk management system will be initiated at organizational level and then integrated in a common ATS framework that can be scalable up to European level (Single European Sky).

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Figure 1: Operational and System Change Loops for Performance Management in PROSPERO (Click image to enlarge)

 

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Figure 2: System of system perspective in PROSPERO (Click image to enlarge)

 

 

Partner Map

Partner Map

PROSPERO comprises 14 partner organisation across 8 European countries.

In the map on the left, you can click on each coloured country to see the participating organisations from that country.

For more detail, click on the circle dots within each coloured country for specific information about each organisation.

Belgium

France

Thales Avionics SAS
Neuilly-sur-Seine Cedex
France.

Bulgaria

Denmark

Croatia

Germany

Jeppesen GmbH
Neu-Isenburg,
Germany

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Hungary

Jordan

Algeria

Northern Cyprus

Jersey

Finland

Belarus

Faroe Islands

West Bank

Lebanon

Portugal

Norway

Reducing Risk Exposure AS
Oslo,
Norway.

Turkey

Georgia

Liechtenstein

Latvia

Estonia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Romania

Egypt

Poland

Libya

Switzerland

Greece

Athens International Airport S.A.
Athens,
Greece.

Technical University of Crete
Crete,
Greece.

Russia

Iraq

Iceland

Albania

Italy

Deep Blue SRL
Rome,
Italy.

Kite Solutions SRL
Laveno Mombello
Italy.

Alitalia
Compagnia Aerea Italiana S.p.A.
Rome,
Italy.

Aeroporti di Roma S.p.A.
Rome,
Italy.

 

Guernsey

Czech Republic

Cyprus

United Kingdom

Isle of Man

Austria

Netherlands

Andorra

Ireland

Trinity College Dublin
Dublin,
Ireland.

Carr Communications Ltd.
Dublin,
Ireland.

Corballis Consulting Ltd.
Dublin
Ireland.

Spain

Fundacion Instituto de Investigacion Innaxis
Madrid,
Spain.

Montenegro

Moldova

Syria

Tunisia

Morocco

Republic of Serbia

Kosovo

Macedonia

Aland

Slovakia

Malta

Slovenia

San Marino

Saudi Arabia

Ukraine

Sweden

Kungliga Tekniska Hoegskolan
Stockholm,
Sweden.

Israel

Carr Communications

5 Northumberland Road,
Ballsbridge,
Dublin 4.

Email: info@carrcommunications.ie
Tel: (+353.1) 772 8900
Web: www.carrcommunications.ie

Trinity College, Dublin

Centre of Innovative Human Systems,
Department of Psychology,
Trinity College,
Dublin 2,
Ireland.

Email: nmcdonld@tcd.ie
Tel: (+353.1) 896 1471
Web: www.tcd.ie

Corballis Consulting

Corballis Consulting Ltd.
The Tower,
Pearse Street,
Dublin 2.

Email: timothy.kelly@corballis.ie
Tel: (+353 86) 601 1919
Web: www.corballis.ie

Innaxis Research Institute and Foundation

José Ortega y Gasset, 20 - 6 planta,
28006 Madrid,
Spain.

Email: innovation@innaxis.org
Tel: (+34 902) 955 527
Web: www.innaxis.org

Reducing Risk Exposure

Kjørbokollen 30,
1337 Sandvika,
Norway.

Email: Post@Reducingrisk.no
Tel: (+47) 955 24 953
Web: www.reducingrisk.no

Kungliga Tekniska Hoegskolan

KTH Royal Institute of Technology
SE-100 44,
Stockholm,
Sweden.


Tel: (+46 8) 790 6000
Web: http://www.kth.se/en

Thales Avionics SAS

45 rue de Villiers
92526 Neuilly-sur-Seine Cedex
France

Email: press.office@thalesgroup.com
Tel: (+33 1) 57 77 80 00
Web: www.thalesgroup.com

Jeppesen

Frankfurter Straβe 233
63263 Neu-Isenburg
Germany

Tel: (+49) 6102 5070
Web: http://ww1.jeppesen.com/

Aeroporti di Roma

Aeroporti di Roma
Via dell'Aeroporto di Fiumicino 320,
00054 Fiumicino
Rome,
Italy.


Tel: (+39) 06 65951
Web: http://www.adr.it/web/aeroporti-di-roma-en-/pax-fco-fiumicino

Alitalia

Alitalia
Compagnia Aerea Italiana S.p.A.,
Piazza Almerico da Schio Pal. RPU
00054 Fiumicino
Rome,
Italy.

Tel: (+39) 06 65631
Web: http://www.alitalia.com/

Deep Blue

Deep Blue SRL
Piazza Buenos Aires, 20
00198 Rome,
Italy.

Email: info@dblue.it
Tel: (+39) 06 855 5208
Web: http://www.dblue.it/

Kite Solutions

Kite Solutions SRL
Via Labiena 93,
21014 Laveno-Mombello,
(VA) Italy.


Tel: (+39) 0332 626910
Web: http://www.kitesolutions.it/

Technical University of Crete

Technical University of Crete,
Chania,
Crete,
Greece.

Email: epapadogeorgaki@isc.tuc.gr
Tel: +30 28210 37047
Web: http://www.tuc.gr/3324.html

Athens International Airport

Athens International Airport "EL. VENIZELOS" SA,
SPATA 19019,
Greece.

Email: airport_info@aia.gr
Tel: (+30) 210 353 0000
Web: www.aia.gr